The week of high stakes in the war in Ukraine

The stakes have never been higher in the war between Ukraine and Russia.

In the week since the conflict passed its 1,000th day, Western powers have substantially increased Ukraine’s military arsenal – and the Kremlin has made its strongest threats yet of a nuclear strike.

Here’s how the last week played out — and what it means.

Late Sunday night, reports surfaced that US President-in-Office Joe Biden had given Ukraine permission to use longer-range ATACMS missiles to strike targets inside Russia.

The move marked a major policy shift by Washington – which for months has refused Ukraine’s requests to use the missiles beyond its own borders.

After the decision was leaked to the media, a salvo of ATACMS missiles was launched by Ukraine in Russia’s Bryansk region.

The Kremlin said six were fired, five of which were intercepted, while anonymous US officials said there were eight, of which two were intercepted.

Whatever the specifics, this was a watershed moment: American-made missiles hit Russian soil for the first time in this war.

Then, on Wednesday, Ukraine launched supplies to the UK Storm Shadow Missiles at targets in Russia’s Kursk region – where Ukrainian troops have captured an area of ​​approximately 600 square km (232 sq mi) of Russian territory.

Later in the week, Biden added the final element of an enhanced weapons arsenal to Ukraine. approval of the use of anti-personnel mines.

Simple, controversial but highly effective, anti-land mines are a crucial part of Ukraine’s defenses on the eastern front – and it is hoped their use could help slow of Russia advance.

With three quick decisions in a few seismic days, the West signaled to the world that its support for Ukraine was not about to disappear.

If Ukraine’s Western allies raised the stakes this week – so did Moscow.

On Tuesday, the 1,000th day of the war, Putin promoted changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for using nuclear weapons.

The doctrine now says that an attack by a non-nuclear state, if supported by a nuclear power, will be treated as a joint attack on Russia.

The Kremlin then took its response a step further by deploying a new type of missile – “Oreshnik” – to hit the Ukrainian city of Dnipro.

Putin claimed it traveled at 10 times the speed of sound – and that “there are no ways to counter this weapon”.

Most observers agree that the strike was designed to send a warning: that Russia could, if it chose, use the new missile to deliver a nuclear weapon.

Such a posture would once have caused serious concern in the West. Now, not so much.

Since the conflict began nearly three years ago, Putin has repeatedly set nuclear “red lines” that the West has repeatedly crossed. It seems that many have become accustomed to Russia’s nuclear “saber rattling.”

And why else do Western leaders feel ready to gamble on Russia’s nuclear threats? China.

Beijing has become a vital partner for Moscow in its efforts to mitigate the impact of sanctions imposed by the US and other countries.

China, the West believes, would react with horror to the use of nuclear weapons – thereby discouraging Putin from making good on his threats.

In a rare televised address on Thursday night, the Russian president warned that the war had “acquired elements of a global character”.

This assessment was echoed by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who said “the threat is serious and real when it comes to global conflict”.

The US and UK are now more deeply involved than ever – while deploying North Korean troops to fight alongside Russia we saw another nuclear power go to war.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said on Thursday that the threat of nuclear war had “never” been greater, blaming the US for its “aggressive and hostile” policy towards Pyongyang.

So why are we seeing these developments now?

The likely reason is the imminent arrival of US President-elect Donald Trump, who will officially enter the White House on January 20.

During the campaign, Trump promised to end the war at home “24 hours”.

Those around him, such as Vice President-elect JD Vance, have signaled that this will mean compromises for Ukraine, likely in the form of giving up territory in the Donbass and Crimea.

That runs counter to the apparent stance of the Biden administration — whose decisions this week indicate a desire to get as much aid out the door as possible before Trump takes office.

But some are more optimistic about Ukraine’s prospects with Trump in power.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kiev would like to end the war through “diplomatic means” in 2025.

Former Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba told the BBC this week: “There is no doubt that President Trump will be driven by one goal, to project his power, his leadership… And to show that he is able to solve problems that his predecessor his failed to solve them”.

“As much as the fall of Afghanistan has caused a serious wound to the foreign policy reputation of the Biden administration, if the scenario you mentioned is accepted by President Trump, Ukraine will become his Afghanistan, with equal consequences.”

“And I don’t think that’s what they’re looking for.”

This week’s developments may not be the start of the war spiraling out of control – but the start of a scramble for the strongest negotiating position in potential future talks to end it.