Democrats need a new immigrant playbook

IIf the US election has taught us anything, it’s that the Democrats are outnumbered struggling to connect with immigrant and minority voters. Contrary to their claim that immigrants who vote Republican are simply “voting against their self-interest,” the reality is much more complex.

It is true that immigrants generally hold more socially conservative viewsbut even those who do not feel uneasy about the drastic structural changes. They left behind their homes, jobs and lifelong friends to seek a better future for themselves and their children. It was a calculated risk, a gamble they were willing to take. For many immigrants, voting for Donald Trump and the Republican Party represented a focus on issues such as inflation, the economyand education—priorities that, for many immigrant voters, seemed the safer choice.

In my opinion, Democrats have not fully grasped the idea that immigrants have conservative leanings. The party relies instead on framing Republicans as racists or just taking on immigration policy determines how immigrants vote. That had disastrous consequences for them on election night.

Voting data shows significant changes in areas with large immigrant populations. For example, in Allentown, PA, which has one of the largest Syrian communities in the US and a Hispanic population 54.3%the democratic margin decreased by 18 points from 2016 to 2024. Similar models appeared in LawrenceMA (80% Latino), where Democratic support is down by double digits from 2020, and in Starr CountyTX (97% Hispanic), where Republicans won for the first time since 1896.

Many Democrats were left wondering: Why, despite the president-elect anti-immigrant rhetoricwould so many immigrants and Latinos vote Republican?

The answer is that immigrants and minorities, especially those from the working class, are unhappy with the economy and many others. Whether from Mexico, Honduras or Guatemala, Christian, Muslim or Hindu, many felt the Republican’s message of self-reliance, economic opportunity and traditional values ​​aligned more closely with their vision of the future.

That doesn’t mean immigrants don’t care about immigration. They do, actually. many. It’s just that their opinions are often more nuanced than they are perceived.

Take the border issue, for example. The conventional wisdom is that immigrants — especially Latinos — would be deterred by Trump’s crackdown on the border. But an October New York Times/Siena College The poll found that 67 percent of U.S.-born Latino respondents and 51 percent of foreign-born Latino respondents did not feel that Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric was directed at them.

Some immigrants actively distance themselves from newly arrived migrants, seeking to assimilate as “real Americans.” They share concerns that unchecked immigration could stoke anti-immigrant sentiment, even if they believe it won’t be directed at them, as the New York Times/Siena College poll suggests.

In addition, the US immigration system is complicated and unfair. Many are on work visas, working well-paid jobs, paying taxes and owning homes, however, he still does not have a path to citizenship. There are thousands more stuck in asylum cases for yearsliving in limbo and knowing one decision could force them to leave at any moment. From this perspective, it is not surprising that many see border crossings as “cutting the line”. Most immigrant voters either know the broken system firsthand or are navigating their loved ones.

Adding to these misconceptions is the tendency of some Democrats to label immigrants as “low-information” voters, pointing to language barriers and limited accessibility. While these barriers exist – particularly in rural areas – the truth is that most immigrants make careful and informed choices.

Consider my parents. My father, a former civil engineer and real estate developer, and my mother, a former obstetrician who ran her own practice, voted for the first time this year as newly naturalized citizens in Massachusetts. Despite their limited English, they spent hours studying each amendment on the ballot—an undertaking shaped by their experience in Syria, where such democratic processes are absent.

Both parties would do well to better understand voters like my parents. This will help them win over and speak to a larger and larger part of the electorate. Today, one in 10 eligible U.S. voters are naturalized citizens—a 32 percent increase from 2012 to 2022, compared to just an 8 percent increase among U.S.-born adults.

With so much at stake, it’s time for America to know the truth. Immigrants don’t vote heavily on “vibes” or “identity politics.” For them, the urn is a practical tool to shape their future – one they plan to use carefully. Hopefully, someday soon, politicians will do a better job of understanding them and talking about their concerns.