Preparing for Trump’s tariffs, China’s Xi makes diplomatic push at global summits

RIO DE JANEIRO/BRASILIA – In his first global meetings since Donald Trump was re-elected US president, Chinese President Xi Jinping went on a diplomatic offensive, fending off expected new tariffs and preparing to exploit future rifts between Washington and his allies.

At meeting after meeting, from APEC in Peru to the G20 in Brazil over the past week, Xi has sought to contrast Trump’s “America first” message by casting himself as a predictable defender of the multilateral global trade order.

Summit organizers, diplomats and negotiators also describe a noticeable shift from previous summits to a more constructive stance by Chinese diplomats, who were less focused on their narrow interests and more engaged in building a broader consensus.

Expansion is urgent for Beijing. While it is better prepared for another Trump White House – with many tech companies far less dependent on US imports – China is also more vulnerable after its economy was hit by a huge housing crisis.

Much of China’s attention has focused on the Global South, with state news agency Xinhua praising the G20 for including the African Union as one of its members. The voice of the Global South must be “not only heard, but also translated into tangible influence,” Xinhua said.

By making such openings, China wants to expand its leadership position in parts of the developing world where the U.S. has long lagged behind because of its inability to match the billions of dollars in investment that the economy has marshaled state of China.

“To position China as a defender of globalization and a critic of protectionism, this calculated message comes at a time when many countries in the Global South fear the possible return of indiscriminate trade and tariff policies from the US, especially under the influence of Trump,” he said. Sunny Cheung, Research Associate for China Studies at the Jamestown Foundation, a think tank based in Washington DC.

“Xi’s remarks aim to portray China as a more stable and responsive partner, and most importantly, a mutual partner, in contrast to the perceived unpredictability of the US.”

THE CONCILIATING TONE

Trump has pledged to impose tariffs on Chinese imports of more than 60 percent, and a Reuters poll of economists found they expected the U.S. to impose tariffs of nearly 40 percent, which could dampen growth in China’s second-largest economy. the world by up to 1 percentage point. .

Former Chinese diplomats privately acknowledge that developing countries will not make up for this loss, but Xi has bet heavily on expanding BRICS and mending fences with Asian neighbors India, Japan and Australia.

European countries, also threatened by Trump with tariffs, tried to strike a conciliatory tone with Xi at the latest round of meetings.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Berlin would work for a mediated solution to an EU-China dispute over Chinese electric vehicles as quickly as possible during his meeting with Xi.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer struck an upbeat tone at the first meeting between the two countries’ leaders in 2018, saying he would like to engage with Beijing on areas such as trade, the economy and climate, and to have broader engagement in science, technology , health and education.

Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international relations scholar, said the US’s European allies would not “embrace” China if Trump’s protectionist policies were directed at them “but there would be more cooperation”.

LIMITS OF EXPLANATION

Behind the scenes, diplomats said they have also noticed a change in China’s behavior at these multinational gatherings, with officials in Beijing becoming involved in a broader set of issues.

“China has traditionally remained much more discreet and has only defended its core interests,” according to a Brazilian diplomat.

“They seem to realize today that more involvement is needed on their part. It is not enough to build economic power, diplomacy is important for their own interests and for the position they want to have in the world,” he added.

To be sure, some analysts say the Chinese action belies tensions between Beijing and other countries that weren’t present when Trump first took office, making his return unlikely to bring about a total reordering of the geopolitical landscape.

Western countries have long accused China of unfair trade practices, saying its state support for manufacturers, along with depressed domestic demand, is pushing Chinese oversupply into global markets.

China’s expansion could also be a tough sell in its immediate vicinity, where its ships have repeatedly clashed with the Philippines and other neighbors over territorial claims in the South China Sea.

Shi Yinhong, a professor at Renmin University in Beijing, was skeptical that Trump’s return would give China more leverage when dealing with the EU and other US allies, highlighting the proliferation of conflicts over Ukraine, Taiwan and other parties.

“China, of course, likes to improve relations with the EU and its great powers, but without high costs,” Shi said.

That meant he would not make major concessions on trade, human rights and territorial disputes “with or without Trump, which in turn makes major and lasting rapprochement impossible,” he added.

Shi also said China’s ability to invest in and take advantage of expensive infrastructure projects in the Global South has been diminished by its dusty economy.

And even among these like-minded countries there is an underlying unease about China’s growing influence, other experts say, pointing to Brazil’s move not to join Xi’s signature Belt and Road initiative as an example.

“Brazil has some concerns about the relationship with China about who is the dominant partner and the desire not to be a satellite and to have a more equal, balanced trade relationship with more added value from the Brazilian side,” he said Robert Evan Ellis, Professor. at the US Army War College. Reuters