What would North Korean troops in Russia mean for the war in Ukraine?

KYIV, Ukraine — U.S. and South Korean officials said Wednesday there is evidence North Korea has sent troops to Russia in a potential escalation of the nearly 3-year-old. war with Ukraine.

If the soldiers’ goal is to fight Russia in Ukraine, it would be the first time a third country has put boots on the ground in war. Other countries on both sides of the divide have sent military aid, including arms and training: Iran supplied Russia with dronesand Western nations have provided Ukraine with modern weapons and financial and humanitarian assistance.

South Korea’s spy chief told lawmakers that 3,000 North Korean troops were trained to use equipment, including drones, before being sent to fight in Ukraine. United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told reporters during a visit to Rome that “we see evidence that there are North Korean troops” who have gone to Russia.

“What exactly they do — remains to be seen,” Austin said. Neither Austin nor the director of South Korea’s National Intelligence Service, Cho Tae-yong, provided details about how they knew about the North Korean troops, and many questions revolve around the impact of North Korean participation.

What do we know about North Korean troops?

North Korean troops were arriving in Russia’s Kursk region on Wednesday to help Russian troops fight an incursion on the border with Ukraine, the head of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, told online military news publication The War Zone on Tuesday.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters On Monday, North Korean officers and technical personnel were already spotted in Russian-occupied territories. He did not specify when.

“I think they sent officers first to assess the situation before deploying troops,” Zelenskyy said. He warned that the participation of a third country could escalate the conflict into a world war. Austin said it would be a “very, very serious problem” if Pyongyang did join the war on Russia’s side.

What is Ukraine doing?

Ukraine is preparing as if fighting North Korea on its territory is inevitable.

A injection of 10,000 North Korean soldierswhich is what both Ukrainian and South Korean intelligence have claimed, “could significantly destabilize Ukraine’s defenses there and greatly accelerate the advance of Russian forces,” said Glib Voloskyi, an analyst at a think tank Ukrainian tank, Come Back Alive Initiatives Center.

Ukraine’s “I Want to Live” project, a hotline encouraging Russian soldiers to surrender, released a video in Korean on Wednesday calling on North Korean soldiers to surrender.

“We appeal to the soldiers of the Korean People’s Army, who were sent to help the Putin regime. You should not die senselessly on someone else’s land. There is no need to repeat the fate of hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers who will never return home!”

How does the West react?

Zelenskyy told reporters on Monday that the European Union and the US had been cautious about publicly addressing North Korean troops fighting alongside Russia – describing their reactions as “very restrained”.

German and British officials also weighed in, with South Korea suggesting it could support Ukraine with military weapons if North Korean involvement is confirmed.

“We don’t even know if we’re talking about 1,500 or 12,000, or what kind of soldiers are coming to Russia and to fight where and against,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said. “It’s kind of an escalation and it shows us a very important, very important aspect. International conflicts are approaching very quickly.”

UK Defense Secretary John Healey said that “there is not only a concern about the potential for an escalation of conflict in Europe. There is an inseparable link with security concerns in the Indo-Pacific as well.”

Why does Russia need North Korea?

North Korea and Russia, both in separate confrontations with the West, have deepened their military cooperation in the past two years. In June, they signed a defense agreement requiring both countries to provide military assistance if the other is attacked.

For analysts, the introduction of troops would be a sign that The war is not going as Russia planned.

“I think Ukraine is exhausting the Russian military as we speak. You don’t get thousands of troops from North Korea if your war is going well,” said Justin Crump, a former British tank commander who runs Sibylline, a strategic consulting firm. “You don’t need them.”