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World Series Home Field Bets for Game 1

World Series Home Field Bets for Game 1

There will be plenty of star power on display in Game 1 of the World Series, but our home run picks back an ever-present Yankee slugger who can take advantage of the fastball.

Andrew Caley - Senior Betting Analyst at Covers.com

October 25, 2024 • 4:58 PM ET

• 4 minutes of reading

The dream World Series matchup between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers features some of the best home runs in the game today.

Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Giancarlo Stanton and Teoscar Hernandez just to name a few. So this World Series dream matchup needs some Yankees vs. Dream props. Dodgers.

Here are my favorites MLB picks for who will hit some dingers in Game 1 of the World Series.

For a full breakdown of the game, be sure to check us out Yankees vs Dodgers predictions!

The Yankees’ home run

Aaron Judge to hit a home run
+200 on FanDuel

The Giancarlo Stanton The resurrection has been something to behold this postseason, but I think we can put to bed the idea that Aaron Judge it’s a postseason.

Judge, who is the shoo-in to win his second MVP award, has been bullied for a while now for his postseason performance, and while he doesn’t have a ton of hits this year, they’ve all been big. Judge has a hit in four of his last six playoff games, three for extra bases and two absolute dongers for an .883 OPS and I like this matchup against Jack Flaherty for the biggest Bronx bomber of them all.

Flaherty had an interesting postseason. He threw two craps with a gem against the Mets up the middle. Overall, he surrendered 12 runs on 15 hits, including three homers, while surrendering an .852 OPS to opponents.

The Los Angeles Dodgers the right-hander relies primarily on a fastball-slider combination to strike out batters. While the slider is sharp, his fastball can be tagged, and opponents have an expected .448 slugging against it this season. Not surprisingly, he’s also a bullpen pitcher who ranks in the 38th percentile in ground ball rate.

The funny thing about this matchup is that Flaherty and Judge have never faced each other despite their time with the Orioles and Tigers over the last two seasons. But Judge might still have an edge. Flaherty also has reverse splits and righties have the better OPS (.730) against him. Judge had an expected slugging percentage of .779 against fastballs this season.

Dodgers go home run

Mookie Betts to hit a home run
+480 at FanDuel

Gerrit Cole he is a very good starting pitcher. But something that always burned him was the home run and that continued this season, allowing a home run in nine innings.

Basically, Cole has great stuff, but when those things get hit, they get hit hard. Cole ranks in the 25th percentile in average exit velocity and 42nd percentile in hard hitting percentage. It also doesn’t help that he’s a 26th percentile pitcher in ground ball rate.

That brings me to Mookie Betts. The Dodgers All-Star does it all is coming off another fantastic season and is now heating up in the postseason. Betts is hitting .342 with a 1.182 OPS, including four home runs in his last nine games.

The other reason to like Betts here is his style. Unlike some of his peers who swing super hard, Betts is a master at dropping the baseball. Betts ranks 1st in the 92nd percentile in sweet-spot rate and 99th percentile in fielding percentage. He doesn’t follow. He doesn’t miss. He is very good.

It doesn’t hurt that he has solid numbers against Cole as well. Betts is 7-1 with just one career strikeout against the Yankees’ ace, good for a .329 expected batting average and a .546 expected slugging percentage. Get Betts to hit a bomb in Game 1.

All Yankees vs Dodgers Home Odds for Game 1

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