Fantasy Football Week 8 Start Sit Decisions: Jalen McMillan and Troy Franklin take off

Quarterback

Start: Justin Herbert, Chargers

The Chargers have played things close to the vest on offense in the first month of the season, posting a -10% above-expected pass rate. Herbert averaged 22.8 pass attempts and 145 yards per game in that span. The Chargers increased their PROE to +2% in Weeks 6 and 7.

Herbert has 73 attempts for 586 yards over the past two games, but just one touchdown. Vegas projects him to get back on track in the scoring department and assigned LA a total of 24 points.

Start: Jared Goff, Lions

The Lions easily have the highest team total on the roster at 28.25 points. They face a Titans defense that ranks 20th in EPA per dropback allowed. Goff has found his stride in recent weeks, throwing for 272 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game over his last four contests. He is QB1 in EPA per game and QB6 in fantasy points per game as of Week 3.

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Wait: Dak Prescott, Cowboys

Prescott took a step back this year and ranks 24th in EPA per dropback a season after finishing second in the metric. He is QB16 in fantasy points per game. The bookmakers are now throwing in the towel on the Cowboys, at least for one week. They have an implied team total of 21.25 and face a top-10 unit in EPA per passing game allowed.

Stand: Geno Smith, Seahawks

Smith was a volume merchant under Ryan Grubb, averaging a pedestrian 7.1 yards per attempt on a league-leading number of carries (279). He faces a Buffalo defense that is giving up the eighth fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year. More important than the game is the loss of DK Metcalf, who has not practiced since Friday morning and looks unlikely to play on Sunday. Metcalf is 27th in rushing yards. He is Seattle’s only receiver in the top 50.

Running back

Start: Kareem Hunt, Chiefs

Hunt came into the Kansas City lineup three games ago and saw 65 percent of the team’s carries. He is averaging 23 carries for 95 yards and a touchdown per game. The Chiefs have an above-expected negative passer rating since Hunt’s first start and are 9.5-point favorites over the Raiders this week.

Start: Chase Brown, Bengals

Brown completed the takeover of Cincinnati last week by beating Zack Moss 15-6. He has seen 55 percent of the Bengals’ carries over the past four weeks and is averaging 15.3 touches per game during that span. Brown also scores well in the efficiency metric. He ranks third in yards after contact per carry and fifth in explosive run rate.

Stand: Chuba Hubbard, Panthers

Bryce Young is back in the lineup this week as Andy Dalton tends to have a sprained thumb. That takes every Panthers player off the menu for fantasy purposes. Carolina has averaged 13.8 points per game in 18 career starts. The Panthers are underdogs by 10.5 points this week and face a Denver defense that ranks 10th in the EPA per rushing attempt allowed.

Stand: Alvin Kamara, Saints

Spencer Rattler’s offense is one that no amount of fantasy value can escape. The Rattler is last in the NFL in EPA per game (min. 100 dropbacks). The Saints have three offensive touchdowns — one of which came on a garbage time pass attempt by Jake Haener — in two Rattler starts. They are down seven points to the Chargers this week. The Bolts have given up the second fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this year.

Wide receiver

Start: Troy Franklin, Broncos

Franklin, a fourth-round pick, has seen his role explode over the past two weeks. He ran a route on 26 percent of the Broncos’ routes from Week 2 through Week 5 after sitting out Denver’s opener. Since then, Franklin has run a route on 68 percent of Bo Nix’s dropbacks. He earned a 25 percent target share and 30 percent passing yards in Week 7. Despite being a running funnel, the Panthers gave up the 12th most fantasy points to receivers large opponents.

Start: Jalen McMillan, Bucs

The track is clear for McMillan’s match with Chris Godwin out for the year and Mike Evans nursing an injury for several weeks. Those two players accounted for 46 percent of the Bucs’ targets and 60 percent of their passing yards. McMillan may also end up moving to the slot after spending most of his time in Tampa Bay on the outside. Godwin dominated the Bucs’ targets as the primary slot receiver, and McMillan was primarily a slot receiver in college. He ran over 90% of his routes from the slot over the past two seasons as a Husky.

Stand: Diontae Johnson, Panthers

In addition to the obvious drop in quarterback efficiency, the Panthers’ unplanned QB change could also result in a lower share of available targets for Johnson. He has a 28% target rate and a 47% fly yardage rate in four Andy Dalton starts. Those numbers were 23% and 24% in Young’s two starts. Johnson recorded six catches for 34 yards in those games.

Stand: Josh Downs, Colts

Every Colts receiver is a “Sit” with Anthony Richardson under center. Downs is averaging 9.6 PPR points in the three starts Richardson has been active for.

This already low number is almost entirely brought about by an 8/82/1 performance in which Richardson went off injured after just four pass attempts. Both Downs and Pittman are in the WR4 ranks until the Colts make a quarterback change or Richardson drastically improves.

Tight End

Start: Cade Otton, Bucs

With Evans down early in Week 7, the Bucs leaned on Otton with 10 targets. He caught eight of them for 100 yards, his first game hitting the century mark in college. Otton won 22 percent of the Bucs’ targets and aerial yards against Baltimore. Tampa Bay is ninth in the NFL in pass attempts and third in completions. Otton, now playing a much bigger role in that passing attack, is pushing for a TE1 ranking this week.

Start: David Njoku, Browns

Njoku looked as close to full strength as we’ve seen him all season in Week 7. He ran a route on 84 percent of the Browns’ dropbacks and earned a 28 percent target share. Njoku turned his 14 targets into 10 catches for 76 yards and a touchdown. Now he gets a massive quarterback upgrade in Jameis Winston for Week 8.

Stand: Tucker Kraft, Packers

There are worse options than Kraft when it comes to tight ends, but he’s unsustainably hot in both yards and touchdowns given his modest role. Kraft is 14th in targets and 30th in passing yards among tight ends, but is 10th in receiving yards. He has one end zone target and four receiving touchdowns, second most at his position. Kraft posted top five fantasy numbers, but looks more like a low-end TE1 based on his usage values.

Stand: Zach Ertz, Commanders

Jayden Daniels has not practiced this week and looks unlikely to play. That leaves Marcus Mariota in the starting role against a Chicago defense that leads the NFL in EPA dropbacks allowed. They are 22nd in fantasy points allowed to tight ends and have received two TE1 games this year. Ertz’s involvement in Washington’s offense is good, but fantasy managers should wait until Daniels returns to treat him as a starting option.