Trump’s pro-Israel ideologues are facing a reality check in relations with the Gulf states

A quick look at US elected president Donald Trump’s appointees surveillance of Middle East politics suggests that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government will soon have close ideological allies in the White House.

from Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, to the Fox News host Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, to Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel and Steve Witkoff as the Middle East envoy, the nominations are telling. Each has previously been wedded not just to Israel, but to the extremist narratives of religious Zionism represented in the country’s current government.

But while Rubio and Huckabee in particular pushed these narratives on the campaign trail for political reasons, all will now face a reality check when it comes to formulating and delivering coherent Middle East policy.

On the one hand, their unequivocal support for Israel’s messy government policy of military annihilation of the idea of ​​resistance will cause friction with Trump’s overall goal of ending all wars in the region.

Netanyahu has repeatedly demonstrated over the past 13 months that he favors protracted military operations without clear strategic objectives over a diplomatic exit to end hostilities – particularly in war in Gazawhere military targets have been exhausted, billions of US taxpayer dollars have been wasted to keep Netanyahu in power, hostages have not come home, and tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians were killed.

In LebanonIsrael will not be able to achieve more than the degradation of Hezbollah, which continues to fire rockets at Israel. But the war against Hezbollah seems to have gotten out of hand as Israel has redirected its war aims against the entire IRANhis “axis of resistance” and the wider population.

And while the Trump administration will return to a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, the new White House will desperately try to avoid a direct military confrontation with Iran, instead delegating that burden to regional partners.

Gulf lobbies

The second and equally important point of friction is the dependence of Trump’s regional policy on the Gulf states. While pro-Israel lobby will try to sell narratives to Trump ideologues, the various Gulf lobbies have deep pockets that have already entangled the business networks around Trump.

Saudi ArabiaTHE United Arab Emirates and Qatar they’ve all built extensive relationships with the Trump ecosystem — all backed by lucrative investments. Moreover, Trump knows he won’t need the pro-Israel lobby to get re-elected because this will be his last term.

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Gulf lobbies, however, can provide lucrative retirement avenues not just for Trump and his family, but for many of his appointees to positions of power. And the interests of the Gulf states will not be easily reconciled with the interests of Netanyahu’s Israel.

In Gaza, there is strong opposition to what Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman last week called “collective genocide” committed by Israel.

Designing and implementing Middle East policy requires far more balance than relaying Zionist talking points in a Fox News commentary

The annexation of Gaza and the West Bank will not be acceptable to Washington’s Gulf partners and probably presents a red line that Trump and his ideologues will not dare to cross.

However, in the absence of a clear US strategy in Israel’s multi-front war, it remains to be seen whether the Gulf can offer anything tangible to prevent Israel from creating irreversible facts on the ground.

This, in turn, risks undoing what little progress the US has made in pushing the Gulf states into normalizing with Israel. Saudi Arabia has made it clear red lines: will not accede to the Abraham Accords and normalize with Israel until demands for Palestinian status are met.

Trump’s team of Middle East ideologues will find that encouraging the far right in Israel will make it increasingly unpleasant for the kingdom to normalize ties.

War narrative

On Iran, the Gulf states are in a different position than they were in 2017, when Trump first entered the White House. Meanwhile, the absence of credible US leadership has caused the Gulf states to effectively diversify their global networks and partnerships. They are much less dependent on Washington today than they were years ago.

In addition, the Gulf states are now much more aware of their influence vis-à-vis the US, as engagement and reconciliation have been the name of the game in the Gulf in recent years. There is a consensus in the Gulf that bringing Iran into the fold is much better for business than cornering it in surrogate subversive operations.

Reconciliation efforts, especially between Riyadh and Tehran in the last two years, they seem to be irreversible. Thus, in terms of providing “maximum pressure”, the Trump administration will not be able to rely too much on the support of Gulf capitals this time.

Meanwhile, Israel’s bellicose narrative of regime change can only be enacted if the US is willing to pour significant blood and treasure into the conflict — something that would fundamentally contradict one of Trump’s few tenets of no more American wars in the Middle East.

Thus, while the Trump team has been deeply ideological in the way it talks about Israel for domestic consumption, designing and implementing Middle East policy requires far more balance than relaying Zionist talking points in a Fox News commentary.

The reality check will come quickly — especially if Trump is really interested in a big deal to secure his legacy both financially and politically. The deal of the century can be done, but only if Trump can use Washington’s leverage to rein in Netanyahu and company.

Should Trump and his team be played the way Netanyahu played President Joe Biden, US regional leadership will continue to decline.

This article was first published on the Arab Digest website.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.